Ronaldo missed a penalty

Predictive analytics promise you to deliver predictions to manage your business better, by allowing you to have a look at the future before it happens. Too good to be true? Statistics methods are there to achieve this goal, but something kept me thinking last night. I was watching the match between Real Madrid and Bayer Munich, and Ronaldo was heading to the ball to shot his penalty. Then the commentator explained that he’s scored his last 24 penalties. First thought that came to my mind was: “statistically, it’s about time he fails”. And I guess that any predictive software would have reach the same conclusion. And he missed. But the most important thing is not that he missed the penalty, but when did that happen, in this very important match, in the most important moment. You can predict when something’s going to happen, but how can you predict the context and circumstances surroundind the event?

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